Lebanon’s Military Could Be the Next Casualty of Its Economic Crisis.
It’s been almost a year since Elias—whose name has been changed to protect his identity—officially became a deserter from the Lebanese armed forces. As a specialized technician with over a decade in the army, he had been making the equivalent of $1,300 month. But then Lebanon’s economic crisis hit in 2019. By the time he stopped reporting for duty as an aircraft mechanic in the summer of 2022, his salary had gone down to roughly $60.
Elias tried to leave his military life behind through official channels. In 2021, he sent in his resignation letter, which because he had already completed his 10-year contract with the army should have allowed him to leave. But after he received no official response from military authorities, he stopped showing up for service.
He now works in digital media and no longer carries his ID card, lest he be stopped at a checkpoint and have his military status discovered. “I’m starting from zero,” he told me over a beer in Badaro, a neighborhood in east Beirut.
Elias’ story mirrors that of many other Lebanese soldiers and security forces personnel. The country’s economy, based on a tenuous banking system described by many economists as a Ponzi scheme, began to unravel in 2019. The ensuing devaluation of the Lebanese lira has rendered most state salaries worthless and pushed much of the middle class into poverty. Whatever savings people still have were reduced to a fraction of their worth and remain stuck in banks through informal capital controls.
The financial crisis, worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Beirut Port explosion in August 2020, has pushed the country into a slow-burning collapse. But given Lebanon’s sectarian political system and history of internal conflict, the state’s inability to properly fund its armed forces—estimated to number between 70,000 and 80,000 personnel—could result in a rapid deterioration of security.
An exact number of desertions from Lebanon’s military is difficult to come by. But thousands of soldiers have reportedly stopped showing up for military service since the start of the crisis. Others took advantage of foreign trips while on military duty to simply not return to Lebanon. Reached for comment, the Lebanese military did not respond to inquiries regarding desertion numbers and the overall state of the military.
With crumbling public services and no solution to the crisis in sight, the role of the armed forces has become even more crucial. “People trust the army,” says Khalil Helou, a retired general who served for 28 years. “It is a symbol of the Lebanese state at a time of great difficulties.”
Helou believes that, despite its current challenges, the army is for the most part still fulfilling its duties. But he also admits that the rising pressure could worsen the situation. “The lack of economic security has an impact on moral, because the soldiers are obviously worrying about how they can support their families,” he acknowledges.
Under the current strains, and in order to avoid more desertions, the military is now allowing soldiers to take on other jobs when they are not on duty, as a means to shore up their reduced incomes. Helou says the measure is not unprecedented, pointing to a similar move implemented during Lebanon’s civil war, which lasted from 1975 until 1990.
Allowing soldiers to have second jobs might partially mitigate the problem. However, without a long-term solution, desertions will continue. A reduction of the military’s operational capabilities would endanger critical missions, such as border control and internal security. Moreover, it would strengthen the role of party-affiliated militias, especially Hezbollah, which has seen its influence grow over the past several years and often acts as a state within the state.
During a donor conference organized by France in June 2021, Gen. Joseph Aoun, chief of the Lebanese armed forces and touted by some as a potential presidential candidate, warned that the collapse of the Lebanese army would spell the breakdown of the country itself, leading to disorder that would spread outside of Lebanon’s borders.
As recently as October 2021, the Lebanese army was forced to intervene in central Beirut when armed Shiite militias from the Hezbollah and Amal movements marched through the neighborhood of Tayouneh, near the Palace of Justice, to demand the removal of Tarek Bitar, the judge heading the investigation into the Beirut Port explosion. The fighters exchanged fire with local Christian militias, leading to an hours-long skirmish that left seven people dead and dozens injured. Without a capable army to mediate between different sectarian groups, similar armed disputes could have even worse consequences.
In the meantime, continued squabbling among politicians has led to paralysis. In mid-June, parliamentarians failed once more to elect a president on their 12th attempt, leaving Lebanon without a head of state for nine months and counting. While the country is managed by a caretaker Cabinet with reduced powers, Lebanon’s political class continues to resist any reforms or solutions that would reduce their power.
Several countries have been chipping in to avoid a disintegration of the army. The biggest contributor over time remains the United States, which has provided a total of $3 billion since 2006. In June 2022, Qatar pledged $60 million to support the Lebanese armed forces. Other countries, like France and Italy, are providing food and medical supplies, as well as some military equipment.
Just a few days ago, the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon and the United Nations Development Program, or UNDP began to distribute a monthly payment of $100 in financial aid to over 70,000 members of the army and police forces. The measure is expected to last six months.
The army has found other ways to try to make ends meet. Since the start of the crisis, it has offered 15-minute helicopter rides to tourists for $150, paid in cash. It also cut meat from soldiers’ meals.
Solving the army’s financial woes will require finding a solution for Lebanon’s broader economic crisis. But after running the country into the ground through years of mismanagement and corruption, Lebanon’s entrenched political elite have yet to offer a recovery plan that includes the necessary reforms that would unlock multilateral financial support.
Paradoxically, the army’s financing problems will only end when Lebanon exits the current crisis. But as Lebanon’s bankrupted state continues its downward trajectory, it is that same weakened army that often appears to be the only thing holding the country together.
Because he is considered a deserter, Elias could be detained and hauled in front of a military tribunal. The army still holds his passport, which prevents him from traveling abroad. And should he end up in a police station, he will likely be identified as a deserter. Despite the danger of arrest, Elias feels the army is taking a certain level of leniency toward cases like his..
“In normal times, my name would be on a list, and they would go to my address to look for me,” he said. “But if my name is on a list, that list is probably so big by now that they can’t or won’t deal with it.”
He could just as well be talking about the political elite’s approach to dealing with Lebanon’s crisis.
Source: World Politics Review
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